This report provides a detailed and quantitative analysis of the global market for Power Sistem in Package (PSiP) dc-dc converter modules. In many instances, unit sales, dollar sales and pricing trends are discussed. See the listing of Figures for a complete description of the Tables included in this unique and extensive analysis.

Topics covered include:

• Definitions and Factors Driving Adoption
• System Maker Demand Characteristics
• IC Developments and Packaging Trends
• Materials Challenges
• Application Demand Characteristics
• Worldwide PSiP Forecasts
• Commercial Development
• Competitive Overview

Introduction

Definitions and Factors Driving Adoption
  System Maker Demand Characteristics
  IC Developments and Packaging Trends
    3D IC Packaging/Stacked Solutions
    Functional Integration versus Component Integration
    High-Voltage CMOS Technology
    Embedded Batteries
  Materials Challenges
    Integrating Magnetics in PSiPs and PwrSoCs

Application Demand Characteristics
  FPGAs
  Radio Frequency (RF) Transmitters
  Memory Termination Supply (VTT)
  Energy Harvesting

Worldwide PSiP Forecasts
  Forecast Assumptions
  Market Adoption Drivers and Challenges
  PSiP, PwrSoC and Non-Isolated Module Price/Performance
  Output Current Forecasts
  Input Voltage Forecasts
  Application Drivers and Forecasts

Commercial Development

Competitive Overview
  Analog Devices
  Cymbet Corp.
  Efficient Power Conversion (EPC)
  Enpirion
  Infineon
  Infinite Power Solutions
  Intel
  Linear Technology
  National Semiconductor
  NXP Semiconductors
  ROHM
  Texas Instruments
  University of Rochester
  Vicor
  Volterra

Appendix A: Report From the Second International Workshop on Power Supply on Chip

Tables
Table 1 – PSiP Companies, Selected Applications and Enablers
Table 2 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Output Current (millions of units)
Table 3 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Output Current (millions of $)
Table 4 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Output Current ($/unit)
Table 5 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Input Voltage (millions of units)
Table 6 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Input Voltage (millions of $)
Table 7 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Input Voltage ($/unit)
Table 8 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Application (millions of units)
Table 9 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Application (millions of $)
Table 10 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Application ($/unit)
Table 11 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Application and Output Current (millions of units)
Table 12 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Application and Input Voltage (millions of units)

Figures
Figure 1 – Linear Technology µModule
Figure 2 – 2011: POL Regulators in Server Systems
Figure 3 – 2012-2015: POL Regulators for Servers
Figure 4 – Beyond 2015: Integrated Regulators in a Processor Package
Figure 5 – Cross-section of a Device Using a PowerStack Package
Figure 6 – EnerChip Die in System-in-Package
Figure 7 – Cross-Section Diagram of isoPower Transformer
Figure 8 – Photograph of isoPower Transformer
Figure 9 – Bond Wire Inductor
Figure 10 – Low Temperature Co-fired Ceramic DC-DC Converter Prototype
Figure 11 – Micro-Inductor Structure
Figure 12 – Normalized Pricing for Point-of-Load Converters
Figure 13 – Price Differentials Between High-Performance PSiP Products and Equivalent “Generic” Products, by Amperage Segment (2011 and 2016)
Figure 14 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Output Current (millions of units)
Figure 15 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Output Current (unit market share)
Figure 16 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Output Current (millions of $)
Figure 17 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Input Voltage (millions of units)
Figure 18 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Input Voltage (unit market share)
Figure 19 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Input Voltage (millions of $)
Figure 20 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Application (millions of units)
Figure 21 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Application (unit market share)
Figure 22 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Application (millions of $)
Figure 23 – Worldwide PSiP Market, Application Growth Rates – 2011 & 2016 (units and dollars
Figure 24 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Application and Output Current (millions of units)
Figure 25 – Worldwide PSiP Market, by Application and Input Voltage (millions of units)
Figure 26 – EnerChip Bare Die Attachment Mechanisms
Figure 27 – Enpirion Power-System-on-Chip
Figure 28 – Texas Instruments TPS82671 System-in-Package Regulator, Embedded DC-DC Converter IC

PSiP products are encroaching certain dc-dc converter IC markets and could replace traditional solutions over the next five years. The total Worldwide PSiP dollar market is projected to grow from approximately $65 million in 2011 to $284 million in 2016, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.4%. High growth rates are expected for all the application segments targeted by companies making PSiP products.

The engineering innovations that have led to PSiP, PCiP and PwrSoC designs will have an impact on different levels and functions of existing dc-dc power converter ICs and modules. PSiP and PCiP (and eventually PwrSoC) products are expected to encroach on the current levels occupied by LDOs, switching regulators, and controllers/FETs.

The best opportunities are in communications and computers, where unit CAGRs are expected to range between 35% and 50% between 2011 and 2016; and revenue CAGRs will be around 23% to 38% over the forecast period. Industrial applications will see good growth, as well, around 55% for unit sales and 44% for dollar sales. The best smaller markets will have even faster unit growth, but this is due to very low starting bases. These include automotive, military/aerospace and medical applications, which will see growth between 50% and 100%. Most of these applications will not see significant revenue until 2013, however.

“Power System in Package” is a term that encompasses several new package styles that could replace certain existing dc-dc converter IC solutions in the future. The bulk of this report focuses on “Power Supply in Package” (PSiP) designs, which are highly integrated micro-modules and the most commercially advanced, although still considered an emerging solution. It also includes “Power Supply on Chip” (PwrSoC), which is a complete switch-mode dc-dc converter solution integrated onto a single piece of silicon (not yet commercially available); and “Power Converter in Package” (PCiP), where some components are integrated, but other components are external.

PSiP devices could replace LDOs, for instance, since they can address space constraint challenges while tripling power efficiency in ultra-low-noise environments. They could also replace noisy dc-dc switching regulators with ultra-quiet, high-efficiency dc-dc converters and miniaturize traditional discrete dc-dc converters.

This report identifies the functions that require the specific benefits offered by PSiP/PCiP/PwrSoC products; and then identifies the applications that need these functions, which are presently being met by LDOs, switching regulators, and so on. Due to pricing constraints, however, these products are expected to be a very small portion of the overall dc-dc converter IC market, but their share is growing.

No true commercial PwrSoC products currently exist, so the forecasts presented are for PSiP/PCiP-type products. But these functions and applications could be met by future PwrSoC products, as well. Darnell Group believes that looking at these technologies based on the functions that the components perform opens up the commercial potential for PwrSoC, PSiP and PCiP products. For example, an isolation barrier is typical in many applications, but this function may be performed with multiple technologies. Capacitors are used for filtering and energy storage, which can also be addressed in other ways. Looking at PwrSoC, PSiP and PCiP technologies from a function integration perspective, as opposed to a component integration perspective, also opens up the application markets where these devices can be used, since the limitations of components integration may no longer apply. Alternative solutions for these applications can be considered, and some companies are already looking at this kind of redefinition in designing products. Not all of these solutions are cost-effective yet, but they are expected to be over the coming years.

At the present time, most PSiP/PCiP solutions are being directed at the lower input voltage segments. This is expected to change over the course of the forecast period, with products being used in higher input voltage applications. While PSiPs are intended to primarily compete with non-isolated dc-dc converter modules, PwrSoCs are expected to compete with both modules and IC-based solutions.

Printed-circuit-board-based dc-dc converter modules are dominant at current levels of 5A and more, and are less common at lower current levels. PSiPs are the more “mature” technology, are commercially available, and are becoming more cost-competitive. PSiP-style products are not a new trend, but they are expected to be the “advance guard” for PwrSoC products. Most companies Darnell spoke to see a growing market for PSiP-style devices, including system makers. PwrSoC still faces issues with cost and other economic factors, so adoption is expected to be sporadic and in “niche” applications, such as computer distributed point-of-load, mobile devices, and applications where ultrahigh-power density is required.

Since no true PwrSoC commercial products exist yet, this report focuses on companies that are either making PSiP products, or are developing technologies or researching innovative solutions that are expected to further the PwrSoC market. The applications targeted by companies making PSiP products include high-performance computer applications, such as servers; telecom applications; and mobile devices, such as tablets and smartphones. Energy harvesting was also cited as a “definite market,” along with “some industrial.” Although not included specifically in these forecasts, PwrSoC is projected for small products and low-current applications.

Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) frequently drive trends and changes in power supply designs. The same dynamics are expected for PwrSoC. Intel sees “the start of a revolution in power delivery and power management for SoCs and high performance applications.” Part of this is “combining” power delivery and power management in applications ranging from performance servers to small consumer electronic devices. Intel says, “The trend in platform power needs to shrink, become more efficient, and be more cost-effective.”

With system makers driving power trends and prices coming down, the PSiP (and related products) market is expected to grow significantly enough in the next few years to provide good “early adopter” opportunities for companies with the foresight to take advantage of them.